Abu Huraira reported Allah's Messenger (ﷺ) as saying:

O Allah, make for the family of Muhammad the provision which is a bare subsistence.

Sahih Muslim

Commentary

The meaning of “qut” in this duā is : that level of sustenance whereby one has just enough to survive. What boggles the mind is that this is a duā that a father is making for his family!

This hadith demonstrates the deep recognition that the Messenger of Allah ( PBUH) had of the reality of this world. He was fully aware that anything more than what fulfils one’s needs can easily throw a person headlong into heedlessness and vanity. For this reason, his duā is ultimately a duā of mercy.

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In a narration found in Bukhāri and Muslim, he (PBUH) said, “[O my Ummah], it is not poverty that I fear for you, rather I fear that the [temptation of the] life of this world opens itself up to you like it did for the people before you. I am afraid that you will compete in its acquisition just like they did; and it will destroy you as it destroyed them.”

We learn from these words of wisdom that whatever suffices us for our needs is better than that abundance which makes us heedless of Allah.

Allah (SWT) says ;

أَلْهَىٰكُمُ ٱلتَّكَاثُرُ ١ حَتَّىٰ زُرْتُمُ ٱلْمَقَابِرَ

“Competing in amassing (wordly means) has distracted you, until you reach the graves…”  Quran 102:1-2

Source : Sacrifice - The Legacy of our Beloved Prophet ( PBUH ) by Tameem Ahmadi

Photos : unsplash.

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There are four parables set forth in Surah Al-Kahf, chapter 18 of the Holy Quran. These stories are about the following :

1. The people of the cave

2. Owners of the two gardens

3. Prophet Musa (A.S) & Khidr ( A.S.)

4. Dhul Qarnayn and Yajūj & Majūj

The Holy Quran presents parables as a means for people to understand .

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The People of the Cave

It’s the story of Christian Youth who escaped the persecution of pagans & were put to sleep for 309 lunar years in a cave, protected by the will of Allah (swt). The exact number of the youth seeking refuge in the cave is only known to Allah (swt) & is not a matter of argumentation. They had a dog accompanying them. This story is a sign & a reminder that Allah (swt) can put his creation to sleep & wake them up or resurrect when he wills such as when the hour cometh .

Two Owners of the Garden

The second story is that of the two owners of the garden. The owner of one of these gardens claimed its his efforts and manpower that has caused him to prosper. He believed his garden would never perish & that humans will not be raised back again from dust. The other owner refused to take another partner besides Allah (swt); he was a monotheist.

The story of Prophet Musa ( A.S.) with Khidr (A.S.)

This surah or chapter also describes Prophet Musa ( A. S. ) journey with Khidr (A.S.) . Khidr (A.S) suggests that it will be difficult for Musa (A.S.) to be patient while accompanying him however Musa (A.S.) insists on being part of the sojourn .

During their journey Prophet Musa (A.S.) is unable to comprehend the wise Khidr (A.S.) actions & he’s requested by Khidr (A.S.) to be part ways. Khidr (A.S.) eplains his actions & the wisdom be stowed upon him by Almighty Allah (swt).

Dhul Qarnayn and Yajūj & Majūj

Fourth story is that of Dhul-Qarnayn and the tribes of Yajūj & Majūj, who are the troublemakers. People request Dhul-Qarnayn for his assistance to get rid of them . Dhul-Qarnayn builds a wall of molten iron & copper to imprison the troublemakers.

These stories remind us that Allah (swt) protects & guides those who he wills. Believers need not despair and there will be a judgement day when there will be an account of every action.

References : The Clear Quran ; read more at Quran.com .

Photo Credits : Unsplash

Purification is valid with the following types of water : rain water, well water, spring water, river water, sea water [even if salty], and water from melted snow and hail.

Such water may be used for purification as long as it remains “purifying”, namely, to remain with its natural characteristics, with nothing having mixed with it such as to “condition” it and thereby remove its “purifying” quality.

This ruling applies whether the water is flowing or in a large cistern, namely one with a surface area of at least ten by ten cubits with a depth such that its floor is not exposed by scooping water out with both hands.

Ref : Ascent To Felicity

Photos : Unsplash

When Allah the Mighty and Glorious gives you wealth and you are diverted by it from obedience to Him, He screens you away, on account of it from Himself both in this world as well as in the hereafter. And it is also possible that He may take away the gift from you and change you and reduce you to poverty as a punishment for your turning away from the Giver, attracted by the gift.

And if you engage yourself with obedience to Him and become indifferent towards the wealth, Allah will make a free gift of it to you and will not lessen it even by an atom. Wealth is your servant and you are the servant of the Lord.

Therefore live in this world under His loving care and in the hereafter honourably and in ease in the garden of biding residence, in the company of the truthful ( Siddiqs) and witnesses ( Shahids) and the virtuous ( Salihs ).

Photo by Alexander Grey on Unsplash

Text Reference : Futuh Al-Ghaib

Wisdom # 1 :

Loosing hope when a slippage occurs is a sign of relying too much on (one's own ) deeds. 

Wisdom # 2 :

Each person has his own respective areas to concentrate on & to prove his mettle.

Wisdom # 3 :

Intentions cannot intrude the walls of pre-ordained things. The human willpower is but a means to the unfurling of predestined divine decree. 

Wisdom # 4 :

Don't bother to think about your world fortunes. 

Wisdom # 5 :

Actions differ according to the differences in the circumstances of inspiration .

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Wisdom # 6 :

Bury your existence in the ground of insignificance because what sprouts out of an unburied seed will not yield good results. Success achieved without humility will be short lived.

Wisdom # 7 :

Nothing will be as beneficial to the heart as seclusion where in it enters the domain of meditation.

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Photo by Jr Korpa on Unsplash

“The life of a written constitution - like the life of the law - is not logic ( or draftsmanship), but experience. Past experience of seventy-three years has shown that it is easier to draft a constitution that to work it. In the same subcontinent, Pakistan and Bangladesh had crafted written constitutions at different times, but they were interspersed with periods of martial lawa and civil and military dictatorships. We will never be able to piece together a new constitution in the present day and age even if we tried, because innovative ideas however brilliant and howsoever encouragingly expressed in consultation papers and reports of commissions, cannot give us an ideal constitution . In constitution making, and in working a constitution, there are other forces that can never be ignored, viz., the spirit of humanism, and the spirit of persuasion, of accommodation, and of tolerance.”

- Fali S. Nariman

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work without effort.

Think of the small as large

and the few as many.

Confront the difficult

while it is still easy;

accomplish the great task

by a series of small acts.

The Master never reaches for the great;

thus she achieves greatness.

When she runs into difficulty,

she stops and gives herself to it.

She doesn’t cling to her own comfort;

thus problems are no problems for her .

Translated by : Stephen Mitchell

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Be in the dojo wherever you are. It’s your choice - live like a sage, or exist like a fool.

- Awa Kenzo

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ये तो आशोबनाक सूरत है

अंजुमन में ये मेरी ख़ामोशी

बुर्दबारी नहीं है वहशत है

तुझसे ये गाह-गाह का शिकवा

जब तलक है बसा ग़नीमत है

ख्वाहिशें दिल का साथ छोड़ गईं

याँ अज़ीयत बड़ी अज़ियत है

लोग मसरूफ़ जानते है मुझे

याँ मेरा ग़म ही मेरी फ़ुरसत है

तंज़ पैरा-या-ए-तबस्सुम में

इस तकल्लुफ़ की क्या ज़रूरत है

हमने जाना तो हमने ये जाना

जो नहीं है वो ख़ूबसूरत है

वार करने को जाँनिसार आये

ये तो ईसार है इनायत है

गर्मजोशी और इस कदर क्या बात

क्या तुम्हें मुझसे कुछ शिकायत है

अब निकल आओ अपने अंदर से

घर में सामान की ज़रूरत है

आज का दिन भी ऐश से गुज़रा

सर से पा तक बदन सलामत है

- जौन एलिया

As the elections of 5 states are around the corner, television channels and news portals are belting out daily shows based on opinion polls .

Are these opinion polls any good ? It turns out not so much .

Hang on, as we dive in to the details.

I have randomly picked opinion poll data published for 3 states, that went to polls recently.

All three opinion polls or surveys were conducted by C Voter for the states Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Karnataka.

Uttar Pradesh & Uttarakhand went to polls in 2022 and Karnataka earlier this year in 2023. All 3 states have different voter demographics, population and assembly seats. Uttar Pradesh is a very large state with 403 Assembly seats, in comparison Uttarakhand is small with only 68 Assembly seats and Karnataka is relatively moderate in size as it has 224 assembly seats.

Now why did I choose C Voter ?

First of all, C Voter conducts and publishes opinion polls regularly throughout India, it has been in the business for 30 years.

Second, C Voter data is readily available for reference through ABP’s online portal.

Last but not the least, Yashwant Deshmukh founder of CVoter would be a good sport.

Opinion polls is not an exact science, it is a field of social research that depends a lot not only on the analysts and field researchers collecting the data, but also on how respondents answer the questions that are posed to them .

Suffice to say, work of a pollster is an art, as much as it is science.

For the purpose of our analysis, we will look at Margin of Error and Confidence Interval that CVoter publishes with its opinion polls, but of-course in the Disclaimer section .

According to Cvoter’s own admission, their Margin of Error is + or - 3% at a Micro Level and + or - 5% at a Macro Level. Data published is published with 95% of Confidence Interval.

What does that mean for the viewer or reader ?

It means that the vote swing for a single party should not be greater than + or - 3 %, at an aggregate level, it should not be greater than + or - % 5 % and the seats predicted should have a difference of more than 5 %. That means , if an assembly has 100 seats, seat forecast will be accurate for at least 95 seats.

Before we move on :

If you would like to know, the nitti gritties of an opinion in more detail I would recommend watching a conversation between Yogendra Yadav and Dr. Vasu. on the art of conducting election surveys.

Yogendra Yadav is an ex-psephologist and Dr Vasu is with eeDina, a Kannada news portal that forecasted the Karnataka Election outcome exactly right.

Let’s look at Uttarakhand first. It’s a small state and small margin of error can cause huge variations. CVoter called it a close fight in its opinion polls between INC and incumbent BJP.

Results turned to be very different though. BJP received a vote share of 44.3 % and INC received a vote sahre of 37.9% . This lead to an 6.4% of actual vote share difference, as opposed to 2 percent that was initially predicted.

It gave a huge advantage to AAP, a newcomer of 13 % compared to 3.3% vote share it actually received and other received 14.5 vote share, far more than initially anticipated by 4% .

Now as you can see from the charts, at the Micro level - it was way off the mark of its + or - 3 % accuracy - in the case of AAP actual was 9.7 % below and 10.6 % more in the case of others. At a Macro Level this turned out to be 12.3 % instead of 5 % as claimed by C Voter.

How these vote shares are translated into Seats, is an area surveying agencies would know better. What we know though is CVOTER prediction were incorrect. BJP won 47 , 14 more than 33 that it had forecasted - leading to an Error % of 22.06, well beyond the limits of 95 % that it claims for itself.

I must mention that we have considered median values of the range of seats that’s usually published for its surveys .

Now, lets look at Uttar Pradesh -

How did CVoter fair in comparison to its prediction versus its claimed margin of ERRor % and Confidence Interval?

CVoter claimed BJP was ahead in the UP Assembly Elections, which it of-course was looking at the results, however the results reflected another anomaly. It gave SP+ Alliance 20 more seats than it actually won, BSP had 16 more seats and Congress 4 more than the median .

If you look at the vote percentages, these are well within the margin of error for the major players that is BJP +, SP + and BSP. However CVOter Survey could not predict the vote share accurately for INC or Others . The margin of error was greater than 4 % in each case.

At a macro level this became a difference of 6 % .

Ultimately BJP+ won 42 seats more than what was predicted , and the error in seat prediction was 10.42 %, way more than compared to 95 % of

Cvoter survey gave a vote percentage of 17 % far more than 13.29 % that was actually received by JDS, and the Seat prediction was again way of the mark as Congress won 135 Seats in comparison to 118. CVoter had predicted a Congress win with a wafer thin margin however it turned out to be a lanslide victory for congress, BJP relegated to 66 seats and JDS winning only 19 seats, 6 less than what was predicted for them.

Here is a summary of Incorrect Seat Predictions by CVOTER for Karnataka, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand. In all 3 states that we studied, it’s Seats predicted by CVOTER are well beyond the 95% confidence interval mark and sufficient to create doubts about its accuracy and efficacy .

Do let us know what do you think about the episode in the comments section and what you would like to be discussed in the Thinking Hat.

Until next time.

Three things are indispensable for a believer in all conditions of life ;

• He should keep the commandments of Allah;

• He should abstain from the forbidden things;

• He should be pleased with the decree of Providence.

Thus the least that is expected of a believer is that he should not be without these three things. So it is mean that he should make up his mind for this and talk to himself about this and keep his organs engaged in this .

From the text - Futuh Al-Ghaib by Shaykh Abdul Qadir Gilani ( RA ) .

Participants also took an oath to safeguard freedom of expression, the unity and diversity of India, and to make every effort to protect democratic institutions. The event was led by Yogendra Yadav, the founder of Swaraj Abhiyan.

source : https://twitter.com/_YogendraYadav

According to the report, the population of Bihar is 130,725,310 people. 27% of the population belongs to the Other Backward Classes, 36% to the Extremely Backward Classes, 19% to the Scheduled Castes, and 17.70% to Muslims.

The release of this survey opens a new chapter in the ensuing debate of affirmative action, as the latest survey clearly demonstrates a disparity in the reservation percentage vis-a-vis population percentage. Currently, there is a reservation cap of 50%, which excludes the 10% EWS quota.

Also, religion-wise population data collated suggests that Muslims form a sizeable number, constituting 17.70% of the total population. As most Muslims have been included within the OBCs, they constitute approximately 28% of the overall 63.13% OBC population.

In a recent election rally in Sahajpur, Madhya Pradesh, Rahul Gandhi had claimed that only 3 of the 90 Chief Secretaries in the entire India are OBCs, i.e., less than 5%. With the release of this report, it can now well be anticipated that the slogan for the General Elections in 2024, “jiski jitni sankhya bhari, uski utni hissedari,” will be gaining full steam.

Rahul Gandhi, for quite some time now, has been articulating his religious philosophy in uncertain terms. He has been criticized in the past for doing exactly that by political scientist Pratap Bhanu Mehta. What P.B. Mehta did not consider is that if you do not philosophize for yourself, someone else will. This is exactly what has been happening for many years in Indian politics, where the BJP/RSS combine has defined religion in atheistic and materialistic terms of one language, region, and culture. One should also note that the views expressed by its ideologues, V.D. Savarkar in his short book 'Hindutva' and subsequently elaborated by RSS’s M.S. Golwalkar in his 'Bunch of Thoughts', continue to be the guiding philosophy as RSS approaches the centenary year of its foundation in 2025.

Undeterred by his critics, Rahul Gandhi continues to define the broad contours of this debate, not shying away from getting into the puddle and fighting a good fight. While L.K. Advani chided Congress as a “pseudo-secular” party, there is an element of truth in that.

Congress, since its inception during pre-independence days, was seen as a predominantly Hindu party. Mahatma Gandhi joined the Indian National Congress in 1915 after his return from South Africa and became a prominent leader, making attempts to bring people of all faiths, denominations, and castes under its umbrella. Maulana Abul Kalam Azad joined INC in 1920 and served as its president from 1940 to 1946, until the year before independence when Pandit Nehru was elected as its president.

Mahatma Gandhi inspired Indians towards political nationalism by weaving together different strands of religious, cultural, and caste differences. He was an ardent advocate of non-violence, referred to Scheduled Castes as 'Harijan' (people of God), and appealed for communal harmony during the tumultuous period. He also had his critics during his lifetime, with Dr. B.R. Ambedkar refusing to call him Mahatma due to his views on caste, and, of course, the Hindu Mahasabha, formed by a more radical and extremist splinter group of INC, which considered him to be too “soft” with the Muslims.

Post-partition of independent India, INC has paid only lip service to the values of inclusive secularism, i.e. pluralism. Muslims have suffered systemic marginalization, segregation, and ghettoization. All this happened under the watch of Congress, which Muslims mostly voted for, until the 1990s when they were disillusioned by the brazen display of Hindutva militancy that resulted in the Babri Masjid debacle, while P.V. Narsimha Rao, who was the Prime Minister of India.

As of today, after 75 years of Indian independence, Congress now stands at the periphery of politics, only ruling in 4 of the 28 states and sharing power in another 3 with its coalition partners. Since losing power at the center in 2014, Congress, under the leadership of Rahul Gandhi, has lost successive state and general assembly elections, and victories have been few and far between. In this context, it is imperative that any leader worth their salt would go back to the drawing board to introspect, brainstorm, and investigate.

Mahatma Gandhi redefined Hinduism during the independence struggle by emphasizing Satya (Truth) and Ahimsa (non-violence) to awaken the national conscience. In this turbo-charged environment of hate that is exacerbated online and offline by vast digital armies and foot soldiers, where does one start? Well, you talk to the people. Rahul Gandhi traversed 4000 kilometres in India by foot, meeting and listening to the people, spreading the message of 'Muhabbat' (Love) along with Truth and Courage (Daro Mat!).

In his recent article, Rahul Gandhi defines not only what Hinduism is, but also what it is not. Hindutva defines nationalism in terms of cultural ethnicity and confines it by geographical bounds. It plays on ephemeral responses of fight and flight, exploiting the masses by triggering the emotions of fear and selfish base desires to rule the world, and by all means, justifying the ends.

Hence, in this context, it’s important to distinctly identify what religion is, i.e. protecting the weak, and more so, what universal religions are. In essence, they carry the message of Truth, Goodness, and Beauty! Anyone saying otherwise is lying.

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Yogendra Yadav, a civic activist and former psephologist, announced via his Twitter handle that civil society organizations will be supporting the INDIA partners for the 2024 General Assembly elections.

अगर देश को बचाना है तो 2024 में सत्ता परिवर्तन करना बहुत ज़रूरी है। दो अक्टूबर को वर्धा के सेवाग्राम से इसके लिए “जीतेगा इंडिया अभियान” की शुरुआत होगी। इसमें पूरे देश से क़रीब डेढ़ लाख स्वयंसेवक कार्य करेंगे जो कि चुनाव में इंडिया गठबंधन के उम्मीदवारों के लिए काम करेंगे।

India is a democratic country, and its constitution came into effect on 26th January 1950, thereby making it a republic. Elections are held every five years, and since 2014, Prime Minister Modi of the Bharatiya Janata Party has been heading the government. Many atrocities have been reported in the past nine and a half years against religious minorities, Dalits, and Scheduled Tribes, also known as Adivasis. India is a caste-ridden nation, where half or more than half of India's 1.3 billion population is classified as Shudra or Other Backward Classes. OBCs, along with Dalits, Adivasis, and Muslims, form the bottom of the pyramid.

The hallmark of the Indian constitution is that it is secular, inclusive, and provides safeguards against discrimination through affirmative action. Ever since the Modi government came to power, there have been incessant attacks on personal liberty, media freedom, and expression of dissent through overtly coercive tactics. Elected governments have been pulled down through the misuse of bureaucratic excessiveness, co-opting media, and a petulant judiciary.

Yogendra Yadav, the founder of Swaraj Abhiyan, a civil society organization, and a political outfit, Swaraj India, announced via his Twitter handle and his Sunday Satsang, an online live event for his followers about the 'Jeetega India Abhiyan.' Yogendra Yadav had also advised the Indian National Congress and Rahul Gandhi during the 4000 KM Bharat Jodo Yatra that took place between 7th Sep 2022 to 30th January 2023.

source :

https://x.com/_YogendraYadav/status/1708345091323293925?s=20

photo : unsplash & forbes.com

पिन्दार के खुगर को 

नाकाम भी देखोगे 

आग़ाज़ से वाक़िफ़ हो 

अंजाम भी देखोगे 

रंगीनी-ए-दुनिया से 

मायूस-सा हो जाना 

दुखता हुआ दिल लेकर 

तन्हाई में खो जाना 

तरसी हुई नज़रों को 

हसरत से झुका लेना 

फ़रियाद के टुकड़ों को 

आहों में छुपा लेना 

रातों को खामोशी में 

छुपकर कभी रो लेना 

मजबूर जवानी के 

मलबूस को धो लेना 

जज़्बात की वुसअत को 

सिज़्दों   से बसा लेना 

भूली हुई यादों को 

सीने से लगा लेना  

टुकड़े-टुकड़े हो बिखर चुकी मर्यादा 

उसको दोनों ही पक्षों ने तोड़ा है 

पाण्डव ने कुछ कम कौरव ने कुछ ज़्यादा 

यह रक्तपात अब कब समाप्त होना है 

यह अजब युद्ध है नहीं किसी की भी जय 

दोनों पक्षों का खोना ही खोना है 

अंधों में शोभित था युग का सिंहासन्  

दोनों पक्षों में विवेक ही हारा 

दोनों ही पक्षों में जीता अंधापन 

अधिकारों का अंधापन जीत गया 

जो कुछ सुंदर था, शुभ था, कोमलतम था 

वह हार गया ….  द्वापर युग बीत  गया 

धर्मवीर भारती, अंधा युग

Photo by : Jeff Hard/ Unsplash.com

अब वक़्त आ गया है

कि आपसी रिश्ते का इक़बाल करें 

और विचारों की लड़ाई 

मच्छरदानी से बाहर निकलकर लड़ें 

और प्रत्येक गिले की शर्म 

सामने होकर झेलें

- पाश

Life is tough.

Easy for few, tough for many. Mother bearing the labor. Child wailing in hunger. Father tilling the land. Labor lifting the load. Soldier shivering in winter.

Suffering is when Jesus was allegedly on the cross, pharaoh followed Moses & when Mohammed wandered in the alleys of Mecca ( May peace be on all of them). Suffering is in sickness. It is in disease, hunger & thirst. Suffering is in love & loneliness.

There is war, there is terrorism, there is war on terrorism. Suffering is when Iraq’s bombed, Rohingyas mascaraed, Kashmiris blinded, Syrians sink in boats, Uiyghars brainwashed, villages burned, houses ransacked, libraries pillaged, canisters thrown, bullets fired. Suffering is when there’s smell of burnt flesh, blood splattered on the walls & the ceiling, when children cry for help.

Suffering is when a Philipina sold, a Latina scolded, a girl kidnapped, a woman raped, a man raped & a child raped.
When clothes are shredded, naked bodies charred & girls mutilated you know it’s suffering.

Suffering is when black is called a nigger, a muslim mlechh or a kalar & the rest kafir.

Suffering is when humanity loses compassion. Emotions are cold & blood too hot. When gun is power. Silence is weakness. When love is lust. Greed is pride.
Suffering is here. It’s real. It’s temporal.

Suffering is Human.

photo-credits #unsplash

Moral : Value is directly proportional to the emotional investment.

A child is born free.

When the child sulks mother’s breast, he cares of no future. No memory of the past. Each day is present.

As the newborn grows old, chains of obligations are fastened. Society expects you to behave a certain way, a stereotype. Frames of gender, caste , religion, ethnicity are built one above the other. Layers of bureaucracy, archaic laws, security protocols & governance snatch away any semblance of freedom, if their remains any.

In the complex mix, in the gated communities, the child forgets who he is. Why was he born. What is his purpose ? The question of purpose is a mighty one.

Lets return to the question of liberty in this post, that is of freedom.

Freedom is lost every day.

Since there was never a realization of what freedom is, we do not realize it what is being taken away from us. Slowly & steadily opaque walls are built around us to make us feel safe. If any these are virtual prisons, we have allowed ourselves to be imprisoned. There’s no coercion. Men pay for security. Cameras record entry. Finger prints open gates. Times are clocked. No strangers are allowed.

A hallowed veneer separates the slums, from the millionaires. One who has more, is the most scared to loose. One who doesn’t, has nothing to fear or at-least it seems so.

A posh suburb & its ugly underbelly. The poor, the wretched should not appear in the vision. They are nowhere to be scorned.

A wall is built.

Governance comes in many forms. States rule subjects. Aging monarch, feudal lord, tyrannical dictator, majoritarian ruler, corrupt representative, ailing democracy, unjust judiciary, atrocious police, an ever abusive society .

Freedom is, freedom from tyranny of the powerful. It is freedom from abuse & exploitation of the mighty. Freedom from forced behavior either through coercion or persuasion. Freedom from opacity of decision making. Freedom from retribution for holding thoughts that aren’t normative.

Liberty is knowing the Truth. Truth sets us free.

photo-credits : #unsplash

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In the meantime, tell your friends!